Potential decline in the distribution and food provisioning services of the mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) in southern Africa

The mopane worm (Gonimbrasia belina) is an edible insect distributed across southern Africa. As a culturally important source of food, the provides nutrition, livelihoods and improves wellbeing for rural communities its range. However, this strong evidence that populations are declining worldwide, climate change likely to cause many species shift in their distributions. For these reasons, we aimed model how ecosystem service benefits coming decades. We modelled distribution under two contrasting scenarios (RCPs 4.5 8.5). Moreover, given shows interactions with other species, particularly trees, incorporated biotic our models using Bayesian network. Our project significant contraction species’ range, up 70% decline habitat by 2080s. Botswana Zimbabwe predicted be most severely impacted countries, almost all lost Decline would have negative implications health people due loss protein as well household income provided harvest. Biogeographic shifts therefore potential exacerbate food insecurity, socio-economic inequalities, gender imbalance (women main harvesters), cascading effects negatively impact poor dependent on natural resource